Voting Behaviour & Media Influence

Voting Behaviour & Media Influence

Models of Voting Behaviour

Political scientists use several models to explain why people vote the way they do.

1. The Sociological Model (Social Structures)

This model argues that voting is shaped by social class, age, gender, ethnicity, and region.

Class voting:

• Traditionally, the working class voted Labour and the middle class voted Conservative — known as class alignment
• Peter Pulzer (1967): "Class is the basis of British party politics; all else is embellishment and detail"
• Class dealignment has occurred since the 1970s: in 1964, 64% of the working class voted Labour; by 2019, only around 33% did
• The 2019 election saw dramatic class dealignment: Conservatives won many working-class constituencies in the "Red Wall" (e.g. Blyth Valley, Bolsover, Don Valley)
• AB (professional) voters increasingly split, with many supporting Labour in 2024

Age:

• Age is now the strongest predictor of voting behaviour in the UK
• In 2024, voters under 35 overwhelmingly supported Labour; voters over 65 favoured the Conservatives
• Each additional year of age made a voter approximately 0.5 percentage points more likely to vote Conservative (2019 data)
• Theories: life-cycle effect (people become more conservative as they acquire property and wealth) vs generational effect (younger cohorts have fundamentally different values)

Gender:

• Historically, women were slightly more likely to vote Conservative (the "traditional gender gap")
• This has reversed among younger women, who are significantly more left-leaning
• The modern gender gap: younger women are more Labour/progressive; older women remain more Conservative

Ethnicity:

• Ethnic minority voters have traditionally favoured Labour by wide margins (approximately 65-75%)
• However, this is not monolithic: British Indians showed increased Conservative support under Modi-era engagement and Hindu community outreach
• In 2024, Labour's Gaza position affected support among some British Muslim communities

Region:

• The North-South divide historically structured UK politics: Labour dominant in northern England, Scotland, and Wales; Conservatives in southern England
• This pattern was disrupted by the 2019 Red Wall breakthrough and the 2024 reversal when many Red Wall seats returned to Labour

2. The Party Identification Model (Partisan Alignment)

• Butler and Stokes (1969) argued that voters develop a psychological attachment to a party through political socialisation (family, community, workplace)
• This attachment is stable and filters how voters interpret political events
• Partisan dealignment has weakened: fewer voters identify "very strongly" with a party (from 44% in 1964 to approximately 10% by 2019)
• Rise of voter volatility: more voters switch between elections

3. The Issue Voting Model

• Voters choose based on which party's policies best match their preferences on key issues
• Valence issues: issues where there is broad agreement on the goal (e.g. a strong economy, good NHS) — voters choose whichever party they believe is most competent to deliver
• Positional issues: issues where parties take genuinely different positions (e.g. Brexit, nationalisation)
• Anthony Downs (1957) — rational choice theory: voters act as rational consumers, choosing the party that maximises their utility; parties converge on the median voter

4. The Leadership/Image Model

• In a presidentialised political culture, the leader's image matters enormously
• Voters assess leaders on competence, likeability, and trustworthiness
• 2019: Boris Johnson's personal ratings (+22 net among Leave voters) far exceeded Corbyn's (-60 overall)
• 2024: Sunak's ratings were negative, but Starmer's were only slightly better — the election was more about rejecting the Conservatives than embracing Labour
• Television debates (introduced 2010) and social media amplify leader focus

The Role of the Media

Traditional Media (Press)

Newspaper	2024 Endorsement	Typical Readership
The Sun	Labour (switched from Conservatives)	Working/lower-middle class
Daily Mail	Conservative	Middle class, older
The Guardian	Labour	University-educated, younger
Daily Telegraph	Conservative	Upper-middle class, older
The Mirror	Labour	Working class

Key debates:

• Do newspapers shape opinion or reflect it?
• Agenda-setting theory: media cannot tell people what to think, but can tell them what to think about (McCombs and Shaw, 1972)
• The Sun famously claimed "It's The Sun Wot Won It" after the 1992 election — but evidence for direct media influence on vote choice is contested
• Newspaper readership is declining (daily print circulation halved between 2010 and 2024)

Social Media and Digital Campaigning

• Social media is now a primary news source for voters under 35
• Cambridge Analytica scandal (2018): raised questions about micro-targeted political advertising and data misuse
• Parties spend millions on Facebook and Instagram ads (Conservatives outspent Labour online in 2019)
• Social media creates echo chambers and filter bubbles (Eli Pariser, 2011) — users see content that reinforces existing views
• Misinformation and "fake news" spread rapidly online
• TikTok emerged as a significant political platform by 2024

Broadcasting

• UK broadcast media must be impartially regulated (Ofcom rules; BBC Charter)
• Television remains influential through leader debates, news coverage, and current affairs programmes
• BBC accused of bias by both left and right, which may indicate genuine impartiality

Opinion Polls

• Polls shape the narrative of election campaigns
• 2015 polling failure: polls predicted a hung parliament; Conservatives won a majority
• 2017 surprise: polls predicted a large Conservative majority; result was a hung parliament
• Shy Tory factor: some Conservative voters may not admit their preference to pollsters
• Polls can cause bandwagon effects (joining the perceived winner) or boomerang effects (complacent supporters staying home)

Evaluation

Key question: What determines how people vote?

• The answer has shifted from class (1950s-1970s) to a complex mix of age, education, values, issues, and leadership
• Brexit created a new political divide: Leave vs Remain, cutting across traditional class lines
• The concept of valence politics (competence over ideology) explains much of recent electoral behaviour
• Media influence exists but is mediated by existing attitudes, social networks, and critical thinking

Exam Tips

• Use specific election data (vote shares by demographic group) to support arguments
• Apply named models (sociological, party identification, issue voting, rational choice) to specific elections
• Evaluate whether class dealignment means class is irrelevant or merely less important
• Discuss media influence with nuance — avoid claiming newspapers simply tell people how to vote